Setup for trend does not seem complete | 15 11月 2013

 EUR/USD

Monthly chart: rollback in the direction of Bollinger medium band continues (1.3081), from where start to upwards movement for the target 1.4260 is supposed to be. Only upon breaking of 1.2749, we can consider any middle-term bearish scenario.

Weekly chart: we witness support from the medium band (1.3328), whereas rollback swing has been fully formed. That can allow bulls to start directly from current levels. Bollinger envelopes boost upward movement, but probable deepening to 1.3081 still should be considered. In case of downward movement one can speak for a local O&U with the outlook described by the red arrow.

Daily chart: inside bar is within the bottom envelope, but an effort for trend from ADX is observed as well as a bearish curve from the bottom line. False breaks down are probable in both up and down directions. In any case, 1.3081 will be support, 1.3612 (Bollinger medium band) will be resistance. In case the support  showы demand in Euro, we will see middle-term growth of the pair to the target 1.4260, in the opposite case – its leave to the 27th figure.

It is obvious that within the frames of one week bar, such options are almost incredible, therefore, the next week must be considered as the preparative week heading for the above-listed paths of direction.

Conclusion: main option is touching of zone 1.3081 and start for upper targets: 1.3328, 1.3612. An alternative option is growth of Euro without continuation of down trend, directly from zone 1.3328. There is a point for buyers to keep Stops below 1.3081, cause under breaking of this point, a strong impetus for reversal will appear.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: the range continues to narrow and nothing prevents such course of events from going on. ADX also starts to show activity, thus, we can get trend distribution only in case of touching of either the point above 1.6479 or below 1.4818. Before that, the range for GBP is set as 1.5018-1.6300 (with the tendency to narrow painted by the blue arrow).

Weekly chart: two probable zones of demand in Pound: 1.5659-1.5750 и 1.5268. Zone of bears' interest is above 1.4818.

Daily chart: leave beyond the range - 1.5885-1.6240 will mark advantage of either buyers or sellers. But continuation of accumulation in this range is also possible.

Conclusion: main option is getting down to 1.5659 and a significant bounce upwards to zone of 1.6240. An alternative option is the break down to 1.5268 and start for upper movement which will take place within the frameworks of the main plan.

Reserve plan: continuation of flat within the range 1.5885-1.6240.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: up-swing has been formed with a sort of pinbar in its end. Therefore, we can wait for either a leave to zone 0.8852 (and further forming of double bottom – blue arrow) or for a new strong upward wave to 0.8072 with the medium outlook as of (red arrow).

Weekly chart: a strong support on Bollinger medium band is seen (0.9283). The next support zone is - 0.8850-0.89. Break under 0.8850 will send an impetus to bears.

Daily chart: we wait for the bounces from key support lines, but upon its breaking, a significant advantage of sellers can be found.

Conclusion: main option will be getting down to zone 0.8850-0.89 and bounce in the direction of 1.000. Note: this scenario can be implemented from a higher support 0.9283.

An alternative option is breaking under 0.8850 and start of movement to 0.8072.