Australian still stands off Euro and Pound | 20 12月 2013

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: Area of 1.3859 will be repeatedly tested (upper Bollinger band), further to which bulls either start attacking 1.4260 or will roll to the medium band (1.3121, marked by red arrow).

Weekly chart: here, 1.4260 level seems like a verdict. The question is only in the direction of movement – whether it will be direct or through rollback to the medium band. So far, a more located support – in this case 1.3442 – does not allow to rely upon a deep movement to 1.3121.

Daily chart: an even closer level of potential demand is 1.3601. Most likely that 1.3859 will be broken exactly after touching this very area.

Conclusion: main scenario is a rollback to 1.36 and attack of 1.3859, success of which looks very probable. In this case, a path to 1.4260 is opened.

There can be two alternative options.

The first one is a direct breakthrough of 1.3859 (without rollback) and approaching to 1.4260. The second one is a deeper rollback to 1.3442 and further growth to targets of this plan.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: support is at 1.58, resistance is at 1.6765. Between these two levels a line of attack of buyers will be defined – attack of the pivot 1.7042. Blue and red plans are equally probable.

Weekly chart: all main resistance lines are broken, they have been constraining bullish attacks for a rather long time. Nevertheless, the possibility of a preliminary testing of the medium line (1.5875) is still preserved. No doubt that such a price for Pound would be a great setup for middle-term purchases to 1.70.

Daily chart: two more complicated resistance lines – current medium Bollinger band (1.6271) and uprising bottom band (1.6040). An ascending wave may start from both levels.

Conclusion:  vast  costs do not allow to rely upon considerable decline and all the more so – dropdown. From each of the levels - 1.6271, 1.6040, 1.5875 – a strong wave upwards can start, for the points 1.6765 and 1.7040.

Alternative option is possible in the form of a preliminary dash of bulls to 1.6765 and a significant correction from there downwards. But results of such a scenario (in case it is confirmed) would be available for our research a week later. Upon that, direct buying from current levels do not seem safe and represent increased risks.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: our recent conclusions about continuation of a downtrend were absolutely founded and prices for the contract still decline. Now bears must not allow a double bottom and need to preserve a general descending trend, for this purpose, they need a new local low. It can be 0.8575, where a significant support is located. Despite the fact it can give a start for a serious upward rollback (up to 0.9659), that will only create additional points for profitable sales in the upper part.

Weekly chart. Goal of sellers is obvious: breaking of 0.8833 and preservation of a downtrend. Of course, we must account for an alternative option in the form of a double bottom (blue arrow). But it is obvious that bears are in good condition.

Daily chart: there are two control points: support as of 0.8833 and resistance as of 0.9160 (medium Bollinger band). Break of any of them can become a significant prerequisite to continue to move in the direction of a breakthrough.

Conclusion: main plan is breaking of 0.8833, decline to 0.8575 and start of a rollback in a direction of 0.9255, 0.9650.

Alternative option is to go up from current levels (in case of inability to break support 0.8833), break of 0.9160 and re-form in order to prepare a mid-term reversal in the upward direction.