Bullish structure of markets remained | 08 11月 2013

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: bulls were not able to break upper Bollinger band, though I am far from thoughts about southern direction. The reason is a fairly high Close and that Bollinger bands are still ascending (watch upper band). In case Northern movement gets confirmed, we cannot see Euro below a medium band (1.3081).

If breakthrough is lower, the pair will move to the bottom band (1.2404). We need to recognize one more supportive zone is here though - 1.2749 — protecting up-structure of trend and able to send Euro upwards in the same way. Medium target of buyers is still 1.4260.

Weekly chart represents two support levels: 1.3338 (medium Bollinger band) and 1.3081. From each of these level Euro can take the air (painted by blue arrows).

In case if support point 1.3081 is broken, we will see O&U pattern (and, respectively, movement within the frames of red path, with entrance point for sales as of 1.3430).

Day chart: as one can see, touching of 1.3338 zone here will lead to forming Over&Under as well, which means coming from the zone of medium Bollinger band (1.3630) to 1.3081, where destiny of the middle-term trend is being solved.

Conclusion: so, everything moves to retracement to 1.3081 zone. Within the frames of these expectations, a direct descend and the option with path 1.3338-1.3430-1.3081 are equally probable.  In general, after touching 1.3081, I would expect a new ascending front to the target 1.4260.

But one has to take into account that breakthrough below 1.3081 will create a strong potential for getting down to 1.2880 as minimum, following to which one can see movement within the frames of O&U (rollback to 1.3430 and drop to 1.2750 (with an outlook to 1.2404).

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: support from medium Bollinger band (1.5650) remains further start to 1.6479 as probable. If 1.5650 does not keep the pair, then we can see that downward movement to bottom band continues (1.5022)

Weekly chart: we see that significant bounces from both medium band (1.5650) and band (1.5268) can take place. The last band marks a strong level, on which bottom Bollinger band will probably be located by that time.

Day chart: in all likelihood, support 1.5885 will be broken, following to which we will face turbulent field 1.5650-1.5750 and further landing to 1.5268, where buyers will meet the Pound.

Conclusion: main option is landing to 1.5650, then – gapped flat movement in zone 1.5650-1.5750 and further descent to 1.5268.

An alternate option is the bounce up from 1.5650 

Strategically, I estimate it as the preparation for growth to 1.6479. Break of 1.5268 and movement to 1.5022 could change this tendency a little.

AUD/USD

Monthly chart: it seems that ascending retracement have fully sputtered out. But bulls have a reserve option with a double bottom in zone 0.8852, (marked by blue arrow). Downtrend will appear along with breaking 0.8850 and 0.8054 can become a minimal target.

Weekly chart: ADX interprets present movement of the pair as retracement, thus, we have the right to expect growth (ie, general retracement of the pair) either from the level 0.9283 (medium Bollinger band ) or from 0.8850 (within the frames of forming of a double bottom).

Day chart: similar situation: the movement down does not represent any trend.

Conclusion: main option is the start to move upwards from 0.9283 to the target 1.0000. Alternate option is the same scenario but with a preliminary deepening to 0.8850) Reserve scenario is breaking of 0.8850 and start of a new descending wave to the target 0.8054.