Weekly Review of S&P500 index, oil, gold | 18 11月 2016

S&P500

Monthly: beginning of the month, no signs of any problems for bears, cause the inside bar started the workout quite well. But Mr. Trump made adjustments. ADX momentum does not consider north as the trend. Therefore, we are still waiting for a downward reversal at least from the upper Bollinger band (2225.4)

Weekly: rising structure is still preserved. At this local frame ADX favors buyers. But so far figures have not reached the trend value, we are waiting for resistance at the upper Bollinger band (2225.4)

The main scenario - decline from current levels to 2090.0

The alternative scenario - growth to 2225.4 (in the case of break of resistance 2175.0)

solutions:

1. Sales to 2090.0

2. Under the alternative scenario, we shall buy to 2225.44 and then look for Sell options 2225.4.

"Brent"

Monthly: October's sell signal in the form of pinbar from the middle Bollinger band is in work. The goal appears to be the lower band (32.88), but we must point out to the non-trend ADX configuration that will cause rollbacks.

Weekly: also weak ADX, so the oil can spend the next week within Bollinger envelopes (43.11-53.56). A further decline will be enabled only by break of support 43.11.

Daily chart: southern potential in the direction 43.11. On such strong parameters of ADX the price can prick and even break strong levels down. Therefore, aggressive buyers are better to wait for more reliable signals at support 43.11, and not to rush to "buy the level".

The main scenario - prick of 43.11 and then a correction signal. Upon that, oil can touch even the 41-th figure

The alternative scenario - a direct drop to 32.88

solutions:

1. Sales to 43.11 and possibly to 41.50

Gold

Monthly: drop to the lower Bollinger band (1035.43). Ahead there is support from the middle Bollinger band (1195.89)

Weekly: the price has broken the lower Bollinger band against weak ADX, we can expect a rollback to the middle Bollinger band (1312.18), from where we can actively "sell and to keep" in the medium run.

Daily chart: at this local frame the price has broken the bottom Bollinger envelope that is also a signal of a deeper fall of gold. Upon that, zone of potential supply is much lower than the middle weekly band - to 1271.18. This complicates a correct setting of Stop orders by bears. We'll have to be patient and enter on new signals directly at resistance lines 1271.18 and 1312.18.

The main scenario - pullback to 1271.18 and then an intensive fall in the direction of 1200.00

The alternative scenario - a more significant upward pullback to 1312.18, and then workout of drop under the main scenario.

solutions: look for downward entry points under one of these scenarios