Pre New Year weekly sketches | 27 12月 2013

EUR/USD

Monthly chart: "Whether\or" situation. Down swing has not been formed, which means that ascending attack does not have the potential it might have. Therefore, we deem the possibility of a direct attack of Bollinger upper band (1.3839, with further growth to 1.4260) and rollback from upper to medium one (1.3118 – red arrow) as equally probable.

Weekly chart: support from Bollinger medium band (1.3476) can become a promising point for buying aimed for 1.4260. If this level is not worked as the support level, we will expect the pair to be based on 1.3298 and there will be an outlook for breaking of a bullish trend.

Daily chart: the possibility of growth from current levels (from the medium 1.3648) and the last turn with a strong subsequent rollback (blue arrow) are equally probable. The second scenario is about growth of oscillator to be based on declining ADX, which often precedes rollback or reversals. Also we would like to underline a local tiny Over&Under of a bearish character.

Conclusion: the main plan is touching of 1.38-1.3820 area and a further decline to 1.3476, from where a new strong ascending wave will move. Alternative option is the break of 1.3476 and decline to 1.3298.

Reserve plan is a direct attack of 1.3839 and start of euro growth to the point of 1.4260.

GBP/USD

Monthly chart: resistance is expected on Bollinger's upper band (1.6574), from where the price can get back to the medium one (1.5798). Taking into account horizontal position of Bollinger envelopes, we can also suppose a chance that the medium one will be broken and further a rather deeper decline to a bottom band could take place (1.4993). Both those plans do not discard a magnetic effect of the area 1.70 supposedly targeted by the bulls working with middle-term strategy.

Weekly chart: a significant support on Bollinger's medium band (1.5915) represents a very promising buying area. Lower break and consolidation can create prerequisites for decline in 600 points, to the area of 1.5272.

Daily chart: two more supportive areas - 1.6314 and 1.6170 – are also an uneasy puzzle for the sellers wishing to change growth trend of the pound.

Conclusion: the main plan is growth from the area of 1.6314 to 1.6574, in the case of upper breakthrough – to the point of 1.70.

Alternative option is a deeper rollback down, to 1.6170 and a further growth within the frames of the main plan.

Reserve plan: a deeper break down would create strong incentives for decline to 1.5915.  

AUD/USD 

Monthly chart: price movement and curve Bollinger envelopes make decline to 0.8574 and 0.8072 (further to a possible upper dash) to be the main plan. A kind of alternative could be confirmation of double bottom on current levels.

Weekly chart: here is a curious point. One more low point has been established, but yet formal, because support 0.8846 can still be considered as non-broken. In the case of growth from current levels, a key level would be resistance from Bollinger upper band (0.9658). Only the leave upper can be a confirmation of reversal for bulls. Meanwhile, we consider the plan supposing that decline will be continued after a rollback.

Daily chart: One more test of bullish potential is on Bollinger medium band (0.9050). If from there we will get movement with a new low (sky arrow), a general middle-term downtrend will be continued. If we see break of specified resistance, a reversal O&U will be formed.

Conclusion: main scenario is a rollback to 0.9050 and continuation of decline to 0.8574 (with a middle-term target as of 0.8072).

Alternative option is a break above 0.9050, movement to 0.9237, formation of O&U pattern (with a roll down to 0.90 and abrupt upsurge in the direction of 0.96)