EUR/USD's overall trend is unclear but it is rising today and so is expected to continue. There is resistance close by now at 1.3630, only about 15 pips higher. At that level it will probably rotate and pull-back down to perhaps 1.3580-90. There is a new count higher to 1.3730, although 1.3630 would have to be cleared first, with a move above 1.3650 for confirmation. The two distinct legs of the recovery rally from the 7th November lows look almost equal in length and this poses a risk of weakness. Given the lack of conviction in the move up compared to the previous move down, it is possible we may get a downside shock taking the pair lower, first to resistance-turned-support at 1.3550, and then to 1.3400, if there is a break below 1.3525. Euro-zone CPI out today could provide that shock.
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