EUR/USD has broken above resistance and the former 1.3578 highs and there is now the possibility of a move up to the 1.3630 target, there is no weakness apparent currently so this is quite possible. The charts have also established an active count, targeting 1.3730. However, I'm not convinced the recovery since the November 7 lows constitutes a proper resumption of the up-trend and I still see the euro susceptible to downside shocks, particularly where inflation expectations are concerned. As such Friday may be an important day, since it is then that Euro-zone CPI will be released, which could move markets in either direction – although a lower-than-expected print will almost certainly see a sell-off. 1.3550 former resistance will become support so a breach below that, and even perhaps the 1.3520 lows could indicate a resumption down to an initial target at the 1.3400 lows.
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