XAU/USD:
In the first half of the week a decrease in quotations may be expected due to US dollar strengthening and growth on stock market. Both factors are negative for gold. The reason is ECB announcement on Thursday of the stimulus program extension until the end of 2017. It also caused S&P500 to reach a new historical high, and, as you know, this tool has a strong inverse correlation with gold. I think that on Wednesday, December 14, the US FOMC will raise interest rates by 0.25% and dollar will show correction, which would have a positive impact on the precious metal quotes. I open short position in 1165/1180 and set take profit in 1150.
Brent:
I expect the reduction of quotations for two reasons. First of all, on Friday oil services company Baker Hughes published its release, so on Wednesday the growth of US oil inventories can be expected. Baker Hughes has reported an increase in the number of drilling rigs in North America: by 21 units in the United States and by 17 units in Canada respectively. Number of vertical drilling platforms has also increased by 4 units in the US. These platforms have proven to be the most effective in oil production. Such tendency is well expected, because oil prices went up rapidly and American oil producers are in a hurry to maximize their benefits. Second of all, as it was noted earlier, FOMC is going to raise interest rates by 0.25%. This will have a negative impact on oil, because cost of energy commodities is denominated in US currency I open Sell positions in 54,70/55,50 and set take profit in 53,10.
S&P500:
There is euphoria on the stock market, but it is quite dangerous to buy right now. I expect that flat trend will be developed next week. Broad market index might beat its historical high against the background of the encouraging macroeconomic statistics. On Wednesday prior to FOMC meeting outcome announcement the data on November US retail sales is to be published; we can expect strong data release based on significant consumer confidence growth, according to CB (the highest result since June of 2007), and high Black Friday sales. Later after FOMC meeting taking profit on long positions is possible. I expect flat in 2235-2285.
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