#SP500:
The macro-economic picture is deteriorating fast and could push the U.S. economy into recession as the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy to tame surging inflation. The Federal Reserve signaled it will likely start culling assets from its $9 trillion balance sheet at its meeting in early May and will do so at nearly twice the pace it did in its previous "quantitative tightening" exercise as it confronts inflation running at a four-decade high. Big U.S. banks are expected to show a sharp decline in first quarter earnings from a year ago, when they benefited from exceptionally strong dealmaking and trading, and funds set aside for loan losses being released. Net income for the six biggest U.S. banks will be down about 35% from a year earlier.
Trading recommendation: sell 4528 and take profit 4370.
#WTI:
Member nations of the International Energy Agency will release 60 million barrels over the next six months, with the United States matching that amount as part of its 180-million-barrel release announced in March. This historically large SPR release is the right decision in the current crisis and consumers should feel the benefit soon. The move comes as the United States and allies struggle with multi-decade high inflation and rising energy and gasoline prices. High fuel prices are a vulnerability for U.S. President Joe Biden's fellow Democrats ahead of Nov. 8 congressional elections.
Trading recommendation: range 94.50 -100.20.
#GAS:
U.S. gas prices have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as strong demand from overseas has emptied storage and left inventories well below average for the time of year. U.S. gas inventories ended the winter at just 1,382 billion cubic feet on April 1, the lowest for the time of year since 2019 and before that 2014. U.S. LNG exports rose 13% in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier, while gas production was up by less than 5%. As a result, LNG exports accounted for 12% of domestic dry gas production in January 2022, up from 8% in January 2020 and 3% in January 2018.
Trading recommendation: buy 6.15 and take profit 6.38
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