Hedge funds and other investment managers have already accumulated a higher-than-average position in crude oil and other petroleum futures and options contracts. From a positioning perspective, the balance of risks has therefore shifted to the downside, with liquidation rather than further accumulation more likely. This is a negative signal for oil prices. Preliminary October data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks down by 118 mb lower than the 2015-2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell 0.2 days, m-o-m, in October to stand at 61.5 days. This is 12.4 days lower than the same month last year; 2.8 days below the latest five-year average; and 0.7 days lower than the 2015-2019 average. This is a positive factor for oil prices.
Trading recommendation: range 78.11 - 82.40
U.S. equity funds pulled in massive money in the week ended November 12, bolstered by optimism over earnings and the passage of a $1 trillion infrastructure bill that lifted several sectors such as industrials and miners. U.S. equity funds saw inflows worth $6.29 billion during the week, compared with purchases of $156 million in the previous week. Among sector funds industrials drew a net $1.03 billion, consumer discretionary attracted $892 million, healthcare and materials received $0.75 billion each, though technology faced outflows of $1.56 billion. Small-cap equity funds pulled in a net $1.04 billion, while large- and mid-cap funds attracted $685 million and $75 million in net purchases. A positive signal for the U.S. stock market!
Trading recommendation: Buy 4664 and take profit 4723.
Pfizer is raising 2021 total company guidance for revenues and EPS. The midpoint of the guidance range for revenues represents 94% growth from 2020 revenues, including an expected $1.3 billion, or 3%, favorable impact from changes in foreign exchange rates compared to 2020. The Comirnaty revenue projection incorporated within Pfizer’s 2021 financial guidance includes approximately 2.3 billion doses that are expected to be delivered in fiscal 2021 based on expected ordering patterns through the end of December for the U.S. and through the end of November for the rest of the world.
Trading recommendation: buy 48.62 and take profit 51.18.