World oil demand is OPEC estimated to increase by 5.8 mb/d in 2021. For 2022, world oil demand growth is unchanged at 4.2 mb/d. As a result, global demand next year is seen averaging 100.8 mb/d. Demand is anticipated to be supported by healthy economic momentum in the main consuming countries and better management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Preliminary September 2021 data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 19.5 mb m-o-m to stand at 2,855 mb. This was 363 mb lower than the same time one year ago, 183 less than the latest five-year average and 131 mb below the 2015-2019 average. This is a positive signal for oil prices!
Trading recommendation: Buy 81.50 and take profit 83.40.
The Fed has been buying up government-backed bonds since March 2020, adding $4 trillion to its balance sheet, as part of an emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Wall Street banks have been among the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic-era trading boom, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s massive injection of cash into financial markets. The top five Wall Street investment banks - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup - made an additional $51 billion in trading revenues last year and in the first three quarters of 2021, compared with the comparative quarters in the year prior to COVID, according to company earnings statements. This is a positive signal for the U.S. stock market!
Trading recommendation: Buy 4443 and take profit 4529.
Alcoa Corporation reported its highest quarterly net income and earnings per share, eclipsing the prior quarter’s record-setting financial performance and continuing to capture benefits from strong aluminum pricing. Higher aluminum and alumina prices, and higher premiums for value-add products, drove a 10 percent sequential increase in revenue to $3.1 billion. On a sequential basis, the average realized third-party price of primary aluminum increased 13 percent. In Aluminum, total third-party shipments decreased 6 percent sequentially due to completion of accumulated inventory sales at the San Ciprián smelter in the second quarter, and a lack of railcar availability for the Canadian smelters in the third quarter. Shipment volume for value-add aluminum products, which includes specific shapes and alloys such as billet, slab, foundry, and rod, decreased 5 percent sequentially primarily attributable to European sales, which are seasonally lower in the third quarter.
Trading recommendation: Buy 53.50 and take profit 57.10.