A positive signal for Gazprom | 24 9月 2021

A positive signal for Gazprom


Preliminary non-OPEC liquids production in August, including OPEC NGLs, is estimated to have declined by 0.2 mb/d m-o-m to average 68.9 mb/d. Preliminary data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks up by 10.5 mb m-o-m in August. At 2,912 mb, inventories were 305.9 mb lower than the same month a year ago; 122 mb below the latest five-year average. As vaccination rates rise, the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to be better managed and economic activities and mobility will firmly return to pre-COVID-19 levels. World oil demand is estimated at 100.8 mb/d in 2022, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. This is positive news for oil prices!

Trading recommendation: Buy 69.40 and take profit 72.90.

A positive signal for Gazprom


Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the U.S. central bank’s $120 billion in monthly bond purchases could be scaled back later this year as a first step towards ending the crisis-era policies implemented in the spring of 2020 as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold. More than 60% of economists expect the first change in bond purchases to take place in December, according to the latest JP Morgan poll, which also showed them cutting their forecasts for 2021 economic growth. As close as Fed officials seemed to be to a bond-buying taper decision, some of the subsequent data have pushed in the other direction. New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, both voting members of the central bank’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, are among those who want more information before making a final decision. This is a positive signal for the US stock market.

Trading recommendation: Buy 4380 and take profit 4490.

A positive signal for Gazprom


According to preliminary data, Gazprom produced 357.7 billion cubic meters of gas in the first 8.5 months of 2021, which is 17.8 per cent more than in the same period of last year. Gazprom ramped up its domestic supplies from the gas transmission system by 14.8 per cent. Gas supplies to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline continue growing and are regularly exceeding the daily contractual obligations of Gazprom. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, the level of reserves in European underground gas storage facilities remained the lowest in many years as of September 19, 2021. The negative difference between the current inventories and last year's level is 22.8 billion cubic meters of gas. Only 62 per cent of the total amount of gas that was withdrawn in the last heating season has been replenished. This is a positive signal for the company!

Trading recommendation: buy 328.10 and take profit 341.20.


David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company

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