06 6月 2024, GBP/USD
An event to look out for today:
15:30 GMT+3. USD - Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD resumes gains near 1.2800 despite the recovery of the US Dollar (USD). Traders have started predicting two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year as the US economy grew at a slower pace in the first quarter than previously forecast. Today, the U.S. will release weekly initial jobless claims and trade balance data.
Over the past few months, Fed officials have emphasized the need to keep the rate higher until the central bank gains confidence that inflation is moving toward the Fed's 2% target. However, a weak ISM manufacturing PMI report for May and weaker gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter have raised expectations of Fed policy easing in September, which is generally weighing on the US dollar. Markets now rate the probability of a Fed rate cut in September at nearly 70%, up from 54.9% earlier in the week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
On Wednesday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that the U.S. services PMI rose to 53.8 in May from 49.4 in April. The figure was better than the forecast of 50.8.
On the other hand, the UK services sector reported a slowdown in growth in May. S&P Global's UK services PMI hit a six-month low of 52.9 from 55.0 in April, which was in line with expectations. Meanwhile, the composite PMI fell to a two-month low of 53.0 in May from a one-year high of 54.1 in April. In the absence of crucial UK economic data, the GBP/USD pair will be influenced by the dollar.
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