The UK economy in recession | 01 4月 2024

01 4月 2024, GBP/USD

The UK economy in recessionAn event to watch out for today:

17:00 EET. USD - ISM Manufacturing Index


The GBP/USD pair is trimming intraday gains, remaining above around 1.2530 during Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) is recovering its daily losses amid risk aversion ahead of ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data from the US due later in the North American session, which limited the GBP/USD pair's gains.

US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3% month-on-month in February, matching market expectations and slightly below January's 0.5% reading. The annualized index rose 2.8%, matching expectations and slightly below the previous 2.9% increase. US core PCE (m/m) rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations and below the previous 0.4% increase. On an annualized basis, PCE rose 2.5%, meeting expectations.

On the other hand, the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start cutting the Bank Rate by three quarter-points in 2024 is putting pressure on the Pound Sterling (GBP). This pressure has been exacerbated by recent weak economic data suggesting that the UK economy has slipped into recession in the second half of 2023. The announcement by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey that interest rate cuts will be considered at future meetings has added to this pressure.

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David Johnson
Analyst of «FreshForex» company
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